This will be the first time I've ever used this Blog so welcome. For anyone wondering why I've taken the decision to start with this, pretty simple really..... The word count on Twitter is unhelpful, usually I'll end up clogging people's feed and attempting to breakdown whatever it is I'm saying can become something of a thankless task within long threads or quoted retweets. For any of my twitter followers or new readers of this Blog, this space shall be used whenever I feel the need to rant and ramble, I am not a Tipster though quite often people will message asking my thoughts... So here we go.
13:45 - Sky Bet And Symphony Group Handicap (5F)
This looks fairly complicated given likely favourite, Jawwaal, has been raised 8lbs for turning what had looked a competitive heat at Ascot last time, into something of a leisurely stroll. Personally I couldn't want to bet a horse off a career high mark when I have yet to see whether he is up to it, or not. For those who LAY, I could only guess that he would look an ideal type although I certainly wouldn't want any part of that. Arecibo is probably one of the most frustrating types in training, often slowly away he needs plenty of luck in the run though I do feel he will have this run to suit. Magic J has the blinkers applied, generally progressive I would strongly respect his chances although his latest flop was fairly costly (6/4f) and he raced freely enough for me to be a little concerned about this new application. Lahore scored nicely here two starts back though the swing in the weights with Arecibo should make this a little too much. Keith Dalgleish has had a rather quiet time of things of late, I wouldn't be entirely dismissive of his chances with Soldier's Minute however and he should be running on. Cases for the rest are fairly easy to make but for what it's worth, Arecibo would be my idea of an each way play at 8/1 with SIX places on offer.
ARECIBO (E/W)
14:15 Tattersalls Acomb Stakes (7f)
These type of races I find easy to ignore from a betting point of view, well bred two year old's with 1's next to their names that could mean anything. Royal Scimitar showed up nicely early doors on debut at Newbury and displayed a very pleasing attitude when fending off a subsequent dual winner. The form of that race has since been franked by a few of the others so one could only surmise it was a fair race. Darvel was in receipt of weight when winning at Ayr, initially I thought that had looked a good race though the 3rd has since been hammered. Cloudbridge looked like he knew his job and duly obliged on debut at Leicester, that form has since been franked although good ground or slower would pose a question mark. Broxi deserves a mention in pursuit of the hat-trick though a token vote is handed to Royal Scimitar at 5/1.
ROYAL SCIMITAR (WIN)
14:45 Sky Bet Great Voltigeur (1m3f,188y)
Immediately my eye was drawn to the betting market here, how much bigger would Highland Chief be in the betting than Mogul?? Remember, the pair were separated by three quarters of a length at Goodwood last time. Mogul only got the better of the argument late in the day, there is every chance there will be no pace on here.... Anyway, Mogul is a top priced 2/1 shot whereas Highland Chief is 11/1 and on the drift, amazing game sometimes even if the integrity of the market is upheld on this occasion. On the back of the odds argument it will probably come as no surprise I would rather try something different and that is the route I went. Darain bolted up in an ordinary Newbury Maiden, a few of the beaten horses have won since although you could hardly say they have strongly franked his form in the context of this race. Sent off at 1/6 next time at Newmarket, it again proved to be a case of easy as you like though he at least proved he handled a different surface that time. Seriously speaking I could not advise you following me here, I just have a hunch he is a great deal better than the bare results of his two career starts might indicate, at 7/2 he is a risk I personally felt was worth a few quid in. At bigger odds, Juan Elcano finished behind two sorts I really like here last time, this trip is worth a go and at 20/1 he makes some appeal.
DARAIN (WIN)
15:15 Juddmonte International Stakes (1m2f,56y)
Usually the numerical turnout here would have me tilting, great race, rich in history yada yada yada.... Forget that routine this time though, I recently described this as an absolute war zone, four extremely good horses squaring off and an absolute no hoper for good measure. The only negative I can find?? I haven't a scooby which one of the four good horses will win!! For those who must bet, good luck, personally I shall be sat on the edge of my couch anticipating a great finish. Ghaiyyath heads the market, perhaps he should, perhaps those who persistently knock him ought to have been silenced by now, I know I have. Impressive when beating horses at the wrong trip was followed up by impressive when beating the mighty Enable at the wrong trip, that isn't exactly how I would describe his effort the last day. Enable had everything run to suit, Ghaiyyath just proved too good, too willing, too everything. Kameko I thought rather fluked the Guineas, his effort in the Derby can be forgiven as he didn't stay and his luckless fourth, behind the brilliant Moohather has been upgraded mentally to a fine second (That is where I think he would have finished) This attempt at 10f looks almost certain to suit, he gets weight from his three biggest rivals and would have no excuse from me unless something silly happens. Magical is as tough as old boots, personally I believe she has been well placed this term and must show something similar to her efforts behind Crystal Ocean and Enable from last season. Discounting her type is difficult so rather than doing that out of hand I will say, of the four main players, I believe she is the weakest as of now and this season. Lord North has progressed at a serious rate of knots, his win last time was so visually impressive and decisive. Currently at around 4/1 he makes betting sense, he should have it run to suit and is my guess of the winner.... Though should you do anything, my advice would be to sit back and just enjoy a great race.
LORD NORTH (WIN)
15:45 Sky Bet Handicap (2m,56y)
This looks almost impossible to decipher without rambling and I'm sure by now you are sick of reading my waffle. Elector went into my notebook on the back of his fairly decent 2nd at Pontefract last time, this demands much more though I think he could be suited by the step up in trip and at 22/1 I thought there was mileage. Make My Day rather ruined my day when winning here last time, his performance that day strongly indicated this type of trip would be within his range and I didn't hesitate in playing at 5/1 (Now a general 4/1 shot) Loads of others have chances, I have two, I shall hope.
MAKE MY DAY (WIN)
ELECTOR (E/W)
16:20 Sky Bet Fillies Sprint Handicap (5f)
Another tricky race to decipher and an absolute headache created by William Haggas who is double handed. On the face of it, it would appear Dancin Inthestreet is their main hope, and she does have enough form to strongly suggest that. However, despite facing better rivals here last time, she was completely done for toe in the early part of a 6f race and now drops in trip. Maybe she will prove the market support to be spot on, maybe she will have too much class for these, at 9/4 though (And shorter in places) she wouldn't appeal to me. Sampers Seven, Keep Busy and Glamorous Anna deserve mentions for their recent exploits although my idea of the winner is Pink Sands, the apparent second string of Haggas. Twice this season she has proven rather disappointing, both times at short enough odds though interestingly, both times on good to firm ground. With rain due and at 7/1, she would make plenty of each way appeal and it is worth remembering what she did at Ripon, at two, on soft ground.
PINK SANDS (E/W)
16:50 Sky Bet Nursery (6f)
As mentioned in the race previously, by now I would have hoped the ground had softened up. Should the rain miss or have little effect then I would imagine Line Of Departure (11/2) would have fair form claims of landing the hat-trick. Another interesting angle could be the Eve Johnson Houghton runners, The Princess Poet (25/1) and Soldier Lions (20/1) both of whom have shown enough to suggest a nursery could be within their capabilities.
Tomorrow is something of a busy day for me, I will try and go through Day 2 of York although it will probably be much shorter than the above. If you have taken your time to read through, cheers, if you want to be critical or anything else, feel free, they are just my thoughts.... Bet or become convinced at your own risk.
Comentarios